A new study by researchers from Canadian universities reveals that if the giant asteroid 2024 YR4 were to collide with the Moon in 2032, its fragments could head toward Earth. This would pose a threat to satellites and trigger a rare and incredibly bright meteor shower.
What do we know about this potentially dangerous cosmic event?
At the beginning of 2025, space researchers were particularly concerned about predictions regarding the possible behavior of the asteroid 2024 YR4, which measures approximately 53 to 67 meters in diameter. Telescope observations indicated that the likelihood of this celestial body colliding with Earth in December 2032 was about three percent. The asteroid was even hastily dubbed the “city killer.”
However, later observations confirmed that the probability of this space rock colliding with our planet is minuscule, standing at just 0.0017 percent. Nevertheless, the Moon remains at risk. According to the James Webb Space Telescope, the chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth’s natural satellite has risen to 4.3 percent.
Recently, Canadian scientists modeled a scenario of such a collision. Their data suggests that the impact could create a crater about 1 kilometer in diameter on the Moon’s surface, and millions of kilograms of debris would be ejected from the Moon’s orbit, heading toward Earth, which they would reach in a matter of days.
“If 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon in 2032, it will be, statistically speaking, the largest impact in about 5,000 years,” the researchers noted in their report. According to them, the resulting meteor shower would be a spectacular sight.
While many lunar rocks ranging from millimeters to centimeters in size will burn up in Earth’s atmosphere and pose no threat to people, some of the material could be captured by Earth’s orbit. This debris could endanger satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts, as reported by The Guardian.
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Lead author of the study, Dr. Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario, stated that the impact of the asteroid on the Moon’s surface could be compared to “a large nuclear explosion—considering the amount of energy that will be released.”
He added, “A rock the size of a centimeter traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is very much like a bullet.”
The study’s findings also indicated that “planetary defense considerations” should extend to areas located far beyond near-Earth space.
NASA and other leading space agencies have long been tracking asteroids and comets that may pose a threat to the planet and are developing technologies to prevent potential collisions.
In 2022, NASA conducted a test aimed at deflecting an asteroid. Researchers crashed the spacecraft Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) into an asteroid named Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbital trajectory.
The asteroid 2024 YR4, which orbits the Sun, is currently too far away for proper observation. It is expected that the asteroid will not be visible until 2028, after which scientists will be able to reassess its size and trajectory.
Despite initial concerns that a collision with the Moon could alter its orbit around Earth, NASA ruled out such a scenario in April of this year after conducting new measurements.