If by the year 2300 sea levels rise by 10 meters due to the collapse of Antarctica’s ice shelves, many cities and villages around the world would be submerged.
This warning comes from a team of researchers at Sorbonne University in Paris. According to their projections, within the next 275 years, 59 percent of Antarctica’s ice shelves could collapse, with catastrophic consequences.
What did the scientists report?
The study’s findings read like science fiction. But they’re not: these events could happen if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising rapidly.
The university team warned, “Our results indicate that current emission policies could significantly affect the likelihood of losing most of Antarctica’s ice shelves.” Whether the ice shelves survive largely depends on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. If emissions remain low, only one ice shelf will collapse; if emissions are high, more than half could be lost.
Currently, Antarctica has 15 major ice shelves and many smaller ones. These floating extensions of the Antarctic ice sheet play a crucial role in restraining ice loss.
The team led by Clara Burgard explained, “Since the ice shelves act as a barrier, preventing ice from the ice sheet from flowing into the ocean, they serve as a safety net around Antarctica,” adding that “their thinning and collapse accelerate the release of ice into the ocean.”
How did the scientists reach these conclusions?
The team modeled how melting of 64 ice shelves would respond as emissions increased. The results show that if greenhouse gas emissions are low and global warming does not exceed 2 °C by 2300, only one ice shelf will be at risk. However, if emissions stay high and warming reaches 12 °C, 59 percent of the ice shelves could disappear, causing a 10-meter rise in sea level.
The year 2300 seems far off, but the researchers say we will feel the effects much sooner.
The team says the period between 2085 and 2170 will mark the transition to the highest rate of ice shelf melting. They add that their estimate is conservative, and actual thinning, retreat, or collapse of the ice shelves could occur sooner. It all depends on each ice shelf’s vulnerability to processes such as damage, rifting, hydrofracturing, or calving.
Is a new global flood on the horizon?
According to Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Screening Tool, a 10-meter sea-level rise would put numerous cities around the world underwater.
In the United Kingdom, cities such as Portsmouth, Southend-on-Sea, Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Bristol, and Cardiff would be affected. Large areas of London along the River Thames would also be submerged.
Across Europe, the coastline from Calais in France to Ringkøbing in Denmark would be flooded. Cities such as Venice, Montpellier, Seville, and Lisbon would also suffer.
In Asia, much of Bangladesh — and cities such as Shanghai, Ho Chi Minh City, and Karachi — would be at risk.
In the United States, coastal areas of Florida, Louisiana, and Texas would be engulfed.
Researchers hope their forecast will prompt governments to take urgent action to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
The findings of the study were published in the journal Nature.
