A recent report from the United Nations on the world’s population – World Population Prospects 2024 – indicates that over the next decade, the global population is expected to increase by more than two billion people. Scientists predict that this rapid growth may come to a halt by the mid-2080s.
What else should we expect?
In the 75 years since the 1950s, the Earth’s population has more than tripled, reaching an astonishing figure of 8.2 billion people.
As of 2024, 63 countries (including China, Germany, and Japan) have already peaked in their population numbers. In the second half of the century, another 126 countries are expected to follow suit, according to the Daily Mail.
The UN has forecast an 80% probability that the world population will peak by the end of the 21st century. Interestingly, in previous years, researchers were largely skeptical about the possibility of reaching a population peak within this century, estimating the likelihood at only 30%.
This is not the only previous forecast that the authors of the latest report have revised. For instance, experts had previously predicted that by 2100, the global population would be 700 million higher than indicated in the new document. This adjustment is primarily due to a significant decline in birth rates worldwide, particularly in China. Once the most populous country in the world, China is now projected to see its population shrink from 1.4 billion to 633 million by 2100.
However, a similar trend is observed globally. Birth rates are falling below the 2.1 children per woman threshold needed to sustain population growth.
Changing birth patterns will also pose challenges in wealthier countries, as declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy radically alter the demographic landscape. According to new forecasts, by 2080, the number of people aged 65 and older will surpass the number of children under 18. This could trigger a crisis in social support and the labor force.
In some regions, the UN predicts that immigration will become the primary source of population growth.
Rapid population growth in low-income countries is likely to complicate efforts to eradicate poverty and hunger in nations facing serious economic and environmental challenges.