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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine has released data from a new study on global fertility rates. This term refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime.
According to the researchers, to maintain a stable population, the fertility rate must reach at least 2.1. However, very few countries will be able to sustain such a birth rate. The team forecasts that these countries include Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Tajikistan, and Chad.
Meanwhile, population recovery rates in developed countries are expected to decline significantly. Aging populations will continue to be a dominant trend, negatively impacting the economy and social sectors of these nations.
Scientists have stated that by 2050, three-quarters of countries will face a shocking decline in birth rates. By 2100, this trend will affect 97 percent of countries, as reported by IFLScience.
The Threat of Global Declining Birth Rates
In just a few decades, the demographic structure of the planet could look entirely different, as birth rates continue to fall. The sharp decrease in the number of newborns will lead to “staggering social changes” in most parts of the world.
At the same time, the world is likely to become “demographically divided.” While birth rates are projected to plummet in most regions, many low-income countries will experience a surge in fertility. This is particularly true for countries located south of the Sahara.
“The vast majority of the world will struggle with serious economic growth issues related to a shrinking workforce, as well as caring for an aging population,” said Professor Stein Emil Vollset, the lead author of the study.
He noted, “The world will simultaneously grapple with a ‘baby boom’ in some countries and declining birth rates in others.” This, of course, will only be somewhat mitigated by wise social policies.
“Social policies that include extended parental leave, paid childcare, financial incentives, and additional employment rights can lead to a slight increase in birth rates,” pointed out Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharji, a co-author of the study. However, in most countries, birth rates will remain below the replacement level. As populations decrease in nearly all countries, they will need to rely on open immigration to support economic growth.
According to the researchers, the significant decline in birth rates is primarily driven by two factors: the availability of modern contraceptives and women’s aspirations for education and careers. They believe that even in light of these challenges, the rights and opportunities for women, which have seen considerable progress worldwide, should not be overlooked.
“There is a very real concern that in the context of declining populations, some countries may justify draconian measures that restrict reproductive rights,” warned Dr. Bhattacharji. The study’s authors argue that countries that respect women’s rights are more likely to achieve better health and economic growth outcomes. “It is crucial that women receive the necessary support to have as many children as they deem appropriate while pursuing their careers,” the scientists emphasized.
The study’s findings were published in The Lancet.
