Gaby
Imagine shouting, “Hey, Sato!” and every Japanese person turns to look. According to statistical modeling, every resident of the “Land of the Rising Sun” would have that surname.
This is because, under Japan’s Civil Code, which has been in effect since the late 19th century, married couples are required to share a single surname. Japan is the only country in the world that enforces this rule. Professor Hiroshi Yoshida from the Aging Research Center at Tohoku University believes that if the law isn’t changed, in over 500 years, every Japanese citizen will bear the surname Sato. If that happens, Japanese people will have to address each other by first names or numbers. However, the professor argues that this is not the right approach.
In 2023, Sato was the most popular surname in Japan, accounting for 1.529 percent of the entire population. At first glance, that doesn’t seem like much. However, according to Professor Yoshida, given the overall probability, there are numerous instances where people marry those who share the most common surname. If this trend continues over time, Sato could overshadow all other surnames, as reported by IFLScience.
However, if Japan changes the law, by 2531, only 7.96 percent of its citizens will respond to the surname Sato, assuming that 39.3 percent of Japanese people continue to choose it for themselves, according to a 2022 survey.
But there’s a catch. The scientists’ predictions from Tohoku University may not come to fruition, as Japan’s population is rapidly declining. Currently, it stands at about 126 million people. According to the “Future Population Projections for Japan,” by 2120, the population is expected to drop to 41,229,000. If this trend continues, by 2531, Japan will have only 281,866 residents, and by 3310, just 22 inhabitants.
In other words, even if the forecast of a single surname dominating the country is postponed by 800 years, “there is a high probability that the Japanese people will become extinct before that time due to declining birth rates,” said Hiroshi Yoshida.
His team conducted the research at the request of the Think Name Project, which aims to pass a new law that would allow husbands and wives to keep different surnames.
By the way, the second most popular surname among Japanese people is Suzuki.
