Experts from the University of Cambridge predict that even developed countries may find themselves in a state of economic stagnation similar to that currently experienced by the world’s poorest nations.
The World on the Brink of Climate Poverty
Researchers warn that will impact all sectors—from transportation and manufacturing to trade and energy. “We have shown that warming reduces incomes in all countries—cold and hot, rich and poor,” states the report from Cambridge University.
Their calculations suggest that if current trends continue, global GDP per capita could fall by 20–24%, equivalent to losing nearly a quarter of the world economy.
When the Economy Burns Along with the Planet
Global warming is not just about and floods. Its consequences include reduced crop yields, food shortages, job losses, rising prices, and decreasing incomes.
Scientists warn that under such a scenario, life in wealthy nations could resemble that in less developed countries: fewer jobs, lower wages, business closures, and an overall decline in living standards.
Rising temperatures will also mean more expensive repairs and recovery efforts after floods, loss of arable land, and damages in coastal regions where thousands of tourism and agriculture businesses are located.
Hot and Poor Countries Will Suffer the Most
According to a study published in the journal PLOS Climate, regions with low incomes and high temperatures will experience the greatest losses. Economic damages there could be 30–60% higher than the global average.
Among the most vulnerable countries are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Burkina Faso.
Future Models: Two Scenarios
Researchers examined two possible scenarios:
- No Change: If temperatures rise by 0.04°C each year, the world will lose about 10–11% of GDP by 2100.
- Extreme Warming: In the case of uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions, losses could rise to 24% of per capita income.
Even a slight reduction in the rate of warming—such as just 0.01°C per year—could yield a global income increase of 0.25%, the scientists note.
The Paris Agreement – A Chance to Avoid Catastrophe
The authors of the study emphasize that fulfilling the remains critically important. The document, signed in 2015, commits countries to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. “It is urgent to stop burning fossil fuels and implement adaptation measures to minimize economic losses,” the researchers from Cambridge stress.
The Global Economy Under Climate Pressure
Experts estimate that the effects of global warming will not spare any country. Even nations with strong economies—such as the U.S., Canada, Germany, and Japan—will lose part of their income due to supply chain disruptions, natural disasters, and rising energy costs.
“Just ten years ago, economists believed that climate change was a problem only for hot countries in the south. Now we know: no country is immune,” conclude the study’s authors.
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