Earth’s population is about people right now. But by the late 2070s that number will swell to a staggering 12.4 billion people, and that would be extremely dangerous for the planet.
A team of scientists at Flinders University reported the population peak that Earth will face in roughly half a century.
“The planet’s life-support systems are already under strain, and without rapid changes in how we use energy, land, and food, billions of people will face increasing instability,” emphasized Professor Corey Bradshaw, the study’s lead author.
The Earth Is Already at a Breaking Point
To track how population size has changed over time, the scientists examined data stretching back more than 200 years. Using ecological models of population growth, the researchers detected a clear biological signal showing that humanity is already living beyond what the planet can sustain. The team published their results on Phys.org.
Until the 1950s, rapid population growth helped drive technological development. But in the early 1960s that trend broke: a so-called “negative demographic phase” began. Population growth no longer affected the pace of technological and economic development, Professor Bradshaw explained.
“The Earth can’t keep up with how we’re using resources,” the scientist said.
Experts say humanity has already pushed the planet to a critical state. The study found a strong link between population growth and rising global temperatures, increasing ecological footprints, and higher carbon emissions.
As the researchers calculated, to live “within ecological limits and at a comfortable, economically stable standard of living,” the optimal (truly sustainable) human population is much lower—about 2.5 billion people. If Earth’s population reaches 11.7–12.4 billion people, the consequences could be devastating for the planet.
End Our Barbaric Treatment of the Planet
The team called for urgent, serious changes. If those changes do not happen, “the current path of human development will lead to even deeper societal crises,” Professor Bradshaw said. He added that this study is not just theoretical: the dangers the scientists identified are already appearing today.
The team urged countries to rethink how they use land, water, energy, and materials, because if they wait it will be too late.
