GabyAccording to meteorologists from Colorado State University (CSU), this year is expected to bring an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season. In other words, the level of activity will be significantly higher than average. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is the annual period when the most intense hurricanes form in the central part of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical cyclones that develop in this area are classified as hurricanes, tropical storms, or tropical depressions, depending on their intensity. These storms can lead to casualties and destruction. During the season, meteorological services from various countries actively monitor hurricane activity, as it impacts the climate balance of the entire planet.
This year, the CSU team predicts 23 named storms, 11 of which are expected to become hurricanes. Researchers anticipate that 5 of these hurricanes could reach the strength of a major hurricane—Category 3 or higher. It is expected that 62 percent of these storms may make landfall along the entire U.S. coastline. This forecast marks the highest number of hurricanes predicted by the CSU team since they began issuing April forecasts 41 years ago. Furthermore, hurricane activity this season is projected to be 170 percent of the average from 1991 to 2020, compared to 120 percent last year.
What the Forecast Entails
The forecast was developed using a statistical model and computer simulations of hurricanes that take into account several key indicators, including wind shear, sea surface temperature, and humidity levels. In their current calculations, meteorologists have also continued to use a new metric known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This metric considers factors such as the frequency, intensity, and duration of storms, as reported by IFLScience. Experts also factored in El Niño, a large-scale climate phenomenon that causes the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean to warm more than usual. Thus, this year, El Niño is another reason why the hurricane season is expected to be so active.
“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions in the summer/fall, leading to a favorable wind shear pattern for hurricanes,” the meteorologists noted in their report. “Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record high levels and are expected to remain significantly above average during the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-usual tropical Atlantic provides a more favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment for the formation and intensification of hurricanes,” the researchers emphasized. However, they insist that interpreting these results requires caution. Much can change in both the atmosphere and the ocean before the hurricane season reaches its peak, and the forecast is merely an estimate. Nevertheless, scientists assert that they have achieved a higher-than-usual level of confidence in their predictions.
Preparing for Any Outcome
According to scientists, the 2024 season will likely exhibit some of the same characteristics as other active seasons, particularly those in 2010 and 2020. “All of our analog seasons were very active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic,” emphasized Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of the report. Regardless of whether the upcoming hurricane season turns out to be as active as predicted, the global population must prepare for any eventuality. Residents of coastal areas should be especially ready for storms. As with all seasons, researchers remind people that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to mark the season as active. “Thorough preparation should be conducted every season, regardless of the predicted activity,” scientists advise.
