A new model of Earth’s climate system suggests that if global temperatures exceed the 1.5 °C threshold set by the Paris Agreement, it could trigger a series of irreversible tipping points. German researchers claim that under the current climate trajectory, the risk of surpassing one of four tipping points could reach as high as 45 percent by the year 2300. What lies ahead for humanity? Last year, the Earth’s temperature surpassed pre-industrial levels by 1 °C for the first time, bringing our planet alarmingly close to breaching the Paris Agreement’s critical threshold of 1.5 °C. Some experts believe that in the coming years, the global population will either reach this target or, conversely, hinder its achievement. Meanwhile, other scientists argue that humanity crossed the line long ago, as reported by Science Alert.
In their recent study, climatologists Tessa Möller and Anika Ernst Hegner from the University of Potsdam examined four potential tipping points. These are critical thresholds that, once crossed, could lead to even more severe and rapid changes in the climate system. Among these tipping points are the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s major current system, the Amazon rainforest, the Greenland ice sheet, and the West Antarctic ice sheet. Experts have recently warned that the Atlantic Ocean current system could collapse as early as 2050. Additionally, the melting Greenland ice sheet is also very close to its tipping point, if it hasn’t already reached it. Biospheric systems, such as the Amazon rainforest, could catastrophically alter the climate system. Some scientists believe that tropical forests are already releasing more carbon than they absorb, contributing to global warming.
The university team noted that the likelihood of exceeding even one of these thresholds is defined as a “tipping risk.” Using a new conceptual model, Möller and Hegner’s team assessed the threat of tipping risks in the short term (up to 2100), medium term (up to 2300), and long term (over 50,000 years). The modeling indicated that at the current rate of warming, the risk of tipping could reach 45 percent by 2300, and in the long term, it could nearly double to 76 percent. While these predictions pertain to a distant future, what the global population does today will determine the future climate trajectory of our planet.
The study’s findings underscore the critical importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement. If the global temperature exceeds the 1.5 °C threshold, even temporarily, there may be no turning back. The team also emphasized that achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 will be paramount in minimizing long-term tipping risks. Thus, the stability of our planet’s climate system hangs in the balance. The research results were published in the journal Nature Communications.