The sun is becoming more active, and NASA doesn’t know why.

In 2019, at the end of the previous solar cycle, Cycle 24, researchers predicted that the next cycle would be just as mild as the last.
However, that prediction turned out to be incorrect. The current Cycle 25, which will last until 2030, has proven to be much more intense than expected by and NOAA. Scientists now assert that solar activity is increasing beyond the typical 11-year cycle. A new analysis of data has shown that solar activity has been gradually rising since 2008.
NASA (the National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are both U.S. agencies.
“All signs indicated that the was entering a prolonged phase of low activity. So it was a surprise for us that this trend has changed. The Sun is slowly waking up,” said Jamie Yasinetsky, a plasma physicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

The Sun – a complex and unpredictable mechanism

Our star appears stable in its manifestations. However, its life is quite turbulent and changeable. Approximately every 11 years, solar activity reaches a peak before falling back to a minimum, as reported by Science Alert.
This activity manifests as a significant increase in the number of sunspots, flares, coronal mass ejections, and changes in the star’s polarity.
According to historical observations, we are currently in the 25th solar cycle, which means scientists have been monitoring the behavior of our star for centuries, using sunspots as an indirect indicator of the star’s activity. Yet, despite the vast amount of data, predictions regarding these cycles remain an imprecise art. There are many more processes occurring within the Sun that lead to changes, and scientists are striving to explain them.
For instance, during a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715, there were virtually no sunspots. This period is known as the Maunder Minimum. A similar lull was observed between 1790 and 1830 (the Dalton Minimum).
“In reality, it is unknown why the Sun experienced a 40-year minimum that began in 1790. Long-term trends are much less predictable, and we do not yet fully understand them,” Yasinetsky noted.
The recent 22nd and 23rd solar cycles were fairly average in terms of sunspot activity. Nevertheless, the pressure of the solar wind has been steadily decreasing throughout both cycles. This has led scientists to speculate that we might be heading toward something akin to the Maunder or Dalton minima.
In 2008, the 24th solar cycle began, which became one of the weakest cycles in recorded history regarding sunspot and flare activity. Researchers assumed that the 25th cycle would be similar; however, its level of activity has turned out to be above average.

Yasinetsky and his colleague, space physicist Marco Velli from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, analyzed long-term data on solar activity and discovered something remarkable. In 2008, at the beginning of the 24th solar cycle, the strength of the solar wind began to steadily increase. This trend continues to this day.
The strength of the solar wind is measured by its speed, density, temperature, thermal pressure, mass, momentum, energy, and magnetic field strength. Each of these parameters has shown an increase.
The Sun is an extraordinarily complex mechanism. Predicting its future actions is extremely challenging. Yasinetsky and Velli believe that their findings indicate the potential for an increase in adverse space weather, characterized by powerful winds, solar storms, flares, and coronal mass ejections.
The research results were published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
Photo: pixabay.com

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